Summer travel is still expensive and chaotic. Most Americans are still at home.

The Crook family tries to ignore the one thing hanging over their impending Hawaiian vacation: the fact that it might not happen. Of course, it wouldn’t be the first time they changed plans this year. At first they wanted to go to Cancún, but they abandoned that idea because of the riots in Mexico in February. Instead they turned their attention to Maui, but the escape is in the books with a pencil, not a pen. They’ve intentionally booked cancellation policies that don’t work well, and if they cancel their flights, they’ll at least keep their airline credit. “Everything is closed,” says Colin Crook, 51, the patriarch of the California family.

Crook’s wife is a teacher, which means there is little room for relaxation outside of the summer months. He does independent PR, which is more flexible in terms of schedule but less stable in terms of job security. “The economic uncertainty of being a laptop warrior – like an email specialist or a white-collar professional right now – is still very high,” he says. “With everything that’s going on in the economy and the world, we feel like every month, what can we do?”

Many Americans have the same problem. It’s a tough time to plan trips. The US war in Iran has caused major travel disruptions in the Middle East, and has led to a spike in oil prices, making fuel and gas – and therefore planes and cars – more expensive. It adds to worries among consumers and workers who are already worried about inflation, the job market and a possible recession. Americans are not feeling the love from foreigners as of late, either because of the conflicting nature of the White House’s foreign policy and the general fatigue of tourism in some desirable areas.

With the spring and summer travel seasons upon us, Americans are considering an alternative option: staying local. Getting away without a getaway can save money, avoid travel chaos, and represent a low-cost, low-stress option for R&R. When so much of the world feels uncertain, there is a comforting level of security in sticking close to home. Hey, 11 American cities are hosting World Cup games, so you can buy tickets instead of the ever-increasing flight to France.

While hopes continue for the Hawaiian vacation, Crook has set a mental deadline of mid-April to decide to pull the plug. If he does, there are options closer to home. “We might be camping a lot this summer, okay?” he says.

While 2025 was the year of the road trip, 2026 may be the year of the stay.

Some Americans seem to be cooling off on international jaunts, including frequent foreign visitors. The latest research by YouGov found that 43% of respondents who travel abroad regularly have done so less in the past year, citing personal issues, economic uncertainty and rising travel costs. A recent survey by Cirium, an airline analysis company, found that bookings for third-party flights from US destinations to major European cities this summer were down 11% compared to last year. (The number of Europeans coming to the US has fallen even further.)

“Based on past events, I expect closer, lower-cost resorts to occur naturally, as a result of economic pressures that keep prices low, and politics drive some away from high-risk areas,” says Bob Mann, an airline analyst.

There really isn’t a ceiling on how much prices will go up.

People aren’t just thinking twice about going abroad – they’re looking hard at where they’re going Stateside. For the 2026 spring break, some people are planning to stay close to home or skip the trip altogether, due to economic problems and TSA headaches. While higher gas and gasoline prices don’t seem to have a major impact on summer travel plans, that could change as the warmer months approach, especially if the price at the pump remains high.

Many people feel stuck between a rock and a hard place: Do they book a flight now out of fear that the costs will get worse, or do they hold off and hope for relief? And if they avoid the plane ticket, how much better will they feel on that July trip if gas is $4, $5, or $6 a gallon?

Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, a tool to track oil prices, tells me the outlook is particularly bleak, given the ongoing conflict in Iran and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil route. Gas prices have risen by $1 per gallon in the past month.

“As long as the situation continues and the Strait of Hormuz does not see a reasonable improvement in terms of shipping, the price of gas will continue to rise. And in fact there is no need to have a ceiling on how the prices will go,” he says.

Cruise ships may not be safe in economic terms, either. Many cruise lines increased fuel surcharges in 2008 to offset rising oil prices, and there are concerns they may do so again. One line, Asia, already has it, and it’s well-documented for most of the itineraries they can handle, whether you’ve already booked or not. Royal Ahmadi, senior vice president and general manager of The Vacation Group, a cruise-focused travel agency, tells me he thinks cruises are ready to embrace the crisis. “They’ve already booked a lot in advance, so they don’t have to raise prices to accommodate that,” he says. “Most of all, his customers are concerned about TSA lines, but he says they’re going ahead with bookings for now.”

It’s not just the direct costs of travel that make people sweat. Americans may see their budgets tighten due to higher diesel prices. Since diesel is used by trucks to transport all the essentials we need, it can send prices skyrocketing—leaving families with less money to spend on long-distance vacations.

De Haan says: The 2008 buzzword of “staycation” will be back — a tough comparison considering it was a moment when the economy was in recession and gas prices had exploded.

Economical aside, there are other reasons why people may want to keep their travels active.

Concern for over-tourism has created tension against foreign visitors to popular destinations such as Italy, Spain and Japan. Americans: If you are desperate to be surrounded by a group of others Americans in Barcelona, think how the people of Barcelona feel. The city doubles its tourist tax to drive this point.

Donald Trump’s foreign policy isn’t helping either. The president has divided many allies, including Canada and many European Union countries, on issues such as trade and defense. America’s attacks in the Middle East have caused confusion around the world. As foreigners know that individual American tourists are not responsible for the decisions of the White House, they may not be happy to host a group of star-studded guests, either.

It’s uncertainty in every part of the travel experience now.

Safety concerns also play an important role for some Americans. In February, drug cartel violence erupted in Mexico, leaving many travelers stranded. Of course, spending a week completely protected and confined in a high-end resort is not the worst situation, but it is not worth it. After the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran’s retaliation, many people find themselves in places in the Middle East that became dangerous overnight. The United States Department of State recently issued a “worldwide alert”, warning Americans everywhere to be extra cautious.

Dan Ahern, 27, tells me he is “taking stock” ahead of his June trip to Armenia, which shares a short border with Iran. The New York-based communications professional’s travel plans are on the back burner for now, though he keeps an eye on the news and the State Department’s travel advisory list on his radar. He is also concerned about anti-American sentiment. “It’s uncertainty in every part of the travel experience now,” he says.

Not every vacation should be a vacation, but if there’s a year to do it, 2026 might be it.

Many domestic destinations could use an economic boost, especially due to the decline in international tourism to the US. That means shorter lines and better deals at places like Disney World or the Grand Canyon that often have foreign visitors.

The World Cup games will be in a strange place, literally and figuratively, for many Americans, especially when cheap tickets are available. For someone in New York or New Jersey, MetLife Stadium is just a (slightly sad) train or bus ride away.

There are no TSA lines needed to clean out your closet, read, or visit that beautiful museum you’ve been meaning to explore.

There is freedom to explore the Greek island. There’s also the freedom of knowing you don’t have to answer a 7 am email from your boss for a week, even if you’re not answering from the comfort of your bed.

Emily Stewart is a senior reporter for Business Insider, covering business and economics.